It has already ruined March Madness, the NBA, MLB, Disney World, concerts, the Olympics, it’s guaranteed to ruin spring, and it has even ruined my ability to find toilet paper. But, will coronavirus ruin your new house search or home sale?
I spent my first three days of quarantine, glued to the television and media sites. Only to break occasionally to try and remember every apocalyptic strategy I had ever seen in the movies. This Coronavirus is unreal!
I calmed myself down after realizing 99% of us would make it through this. The first time I can remember praying NOT to be in the 1%. Nevertheless, if you planned to sell or buy a home in 2020, you might be wondering if it will also ruin your ability to buy or sell your home in 2020 now that coronavirus has shown up. Is this a good time to buy or a good time to sell?
OK, first off I want to let you know the economy just went into a self-induced coma. Never in modern history has a strategy like this ever been attempted before. No one knows what kind of side effects this will cause and what the economy will look like in a year or even two.
This is just to remind you an economy is a complex machine that sometimes reacts in mysterious ways. They say meteorologists and economists are the only two people that get it wrong all the time and still keep their jobs. I’m going to let you know what the statistics and economists expect in the real estate market.
Before The Virus
After a record-setting bull run, the economy is now most certainly in a recession. The virus was the needle that burst the bubble. Let’s take a look at what the real estate market was doing before the virus showed up. We will look at Chicago and then the nation as a whole.
Chicagoland real estate was still showing promising numbers closing 1.6 percent more homes in February 2020 than a year before. Chicago has had a very low inventory for many years now and with steady demand, it has had a slow but steady climb out of the previous recession.
Homes that were priced around the median price or lower had good demand. The higher-end real estate $500k +, on the other hand, wasn’t doing well, it had slowed down before the recession.
This was likely due to multiple reasons including high property taxes, a possible change in state income tax code, and a new federal code that did not favor high property taxed states like Illinois.
The nation as a whole was going strong. Although there were signs of a slow down there was still a high demand for real estate across the states. The coasts had recovered from their 2008 lows and had even surpassed their previous highs before the housing crisis. With strong demand, the southern and middle of the country was busy building new housing.
Coronavirus Impact On Real Estate
The coronavirus has already impacted real estate. Showings are slowing down, inspections are slowing down and we even heard of buyers getting cold feet and backing out of deals.
This is all because of the high amount of uncertainty across the world. Congress is working on passing a Multi trillion dollar plan to stall the economy and inject money into both Wall Street and Main street. All with the hope that we can turn the switch back on and act like the epidemic was just a bad dream. The big question is, Will it work?
This strategy has never been attempted before; the very best outcome would be the economy would switch on and look like it did in spring 2019. This is only if the squeeze does not expose weak balance sheets and cause major long term unemployment.
Frederick Warburg Peters, the CEO of New York-based Warburg Realty, told Business Insider that he believes the city’s housing market will react to the coronavirus pandemic much like it did after 9/11 and the 2008 recession.
That might be true for residential but commercial and retail have their own challenges. The Retail apocalypse was already undergoing.
In 2019, US retailers announced 9,302 store closings, a 59% jump from 2018. And with consumers stuck to couches unable to purchase their merchandise, Covid 19 might be the straw that broke the camel’s back for many retailers. Some in the commercial real estate market warn many intermediate banks can not hold the cash squeeze if they don’t allow interest holidays and rent holidays.
The true and most important variable is the consumer. How will the consumer think? And how will he act? No one really knows. I know it will take me a bit to get over all the times I went through all worst-case scenarios with Coronavirus. It might be tough to get over the nightmare that has become coronavirus.
Additionally, coronavirus might change the consumer experience forever. Social distancing has put a lot of stress on local businesses and restaurants, making them all scramble to adapt and find solutions. Electric payment and food delivery services were already picking up steam. Maybe electronic ordering and curbside pick will become the norm. Remember, at one time, the drive-thru was a foreign concept. Necessity is the mother of all inventions, and If consumers get accustomed to the new way of doing business and remotely working, it might also change unemployment numbers.
Unemployment will affect real estate, in the third and fourth quarters. The loss in consumer confidence and high unemployment numbers are likely to cool the real estate market and put downward pressure on prices.
The housing crisis created a strong financial foundation for our current housing market though.
Chicago real estate is likely to have a quick V-shaped recovery. Chicago has had poor growth since the housing crisis but still has a low home inventory. Chicago also has many diverse industries and while it has had its problems, it has also kept a good value vs the rest of the nation. We have seen an exodus, high taxes, and corruption, but honestly, it’s already built into the price.
The nation might look a little different. There are areas that do have more home inventory and many new builds. Those areas that were quickly building when the economy was booming, might take a bigger swing the other way.
Chicago is a linear market, we don’t really see high highs but also don’t really see low lows. Cyclical markets (mostly on the coasts) might experience the most change. This is because they are markets that were already cooling off before the coronavirus. Additionally, the world recession might eliminate some foreign investor demand.
Conclusion
The Fed has injected enough cash to buy us some time to hopefully make it out of this nightmare. But will the economy look the same when we wake up? I don’t believe so, the epidemic will cause changes in not only consumer behavior but networking.
Strong companies will find efficiencies and figure out how to make it through these hard times that could change their business practices from here forward. With the sudden increase in unemployment, it will give buyers a great buying opportunity in the medium price range. Homes priced at higher than median house prices might experience an even stronger buyers market. Overall I expect the real estate market to recover quickly. Rates will remain low or zero for the next few years giving real estate fuel to get back to its previous highs.
