If you are thinking about buying a house in Chicago, it is important to know if this is the best time. After years of price appreciation and good market conditions, some analysts have started questioning whether or not the market will cool down or even crash. This blog post will help answer that question by analyzing inventory, price appreciation, and what’s going on for the remainder of 2021. You’ll also get my opinion as a real estate agent on when it would be wise to buy in this market.
The best time to buy is when prices are low. But that’s all relative, people who purchased homes in 2020 for example, are fortunate that they did not lose money on their home and even took advantage of the price appreciation of the last year.
The Chicago market has been on a steady incline for the past few years, but some analysts question how long this will last. In addition, many of Chicagoland’s neighborhoods are currently experiencing inventory shortages. Meaning it can take months or more than a year before you find your dream home!
In this blog, we will cover
- Current Market conditions
- What the reopening will mean for Chicago Real Estate
- What it will it take for the market to crash
- When you should buy a house in Chicago
Current market conditions
It is no secret that many parts of the economy are experiencing a shortage of many goods and services, housing being one of them. As a result, we have seen an increase in cost across the whole US economy. There is a simple explanation for the increased cost of housing. Over the last three years, going back to 2018, the Chicago land area has seen a drop of over 30% of inventory, helping homes appreciate over 14% in the past year. Lower supply with similar or higher demands naturally causes prices to increase.
The most significant drop of inventory in the Chicagoland area has been seen in lower price ranges, primarily homes around the median sales price of $270k. As a result, buyers purchasing around the median sales price will see significantly less supply.
The entry-level housings low inventory is now defined as the affordable housing crisis. Economists highlight many years of underbuilding, higher labor prices, and higher material prices as the higher cost and shortage in affordable housing.
What this means for you, the home buyer, is simple. If your budget is $270k-$320k or below, be prepared to have reduced choices and higher competition when it comes time to buy, leading to longer wait times and more aggressive negotiations.
Will the reopening relief housing inventory?
Without question, the pandemic has affected Chicago’s real estate inventory. Months supply is at a historic low at around two months. A standard market months supply is considered 5-6 months. Many people believe the reopening of our economy will lead to more inventory and alleviate the red hot conditions.
Will the Reopening lower real estate prices?
Although I expect an increase in the supply of homes for sale, I don’t believe the increase will have much of a change in cost. The number of homes on the market is still well below normal levels, and a 10-20% change will likely only help stabilize the market. In addition, over the lasts three years leading back to 2018, we have also seen a 30% increase in closed sales, meaning demand for housing is also increasing. It is this increased demand for housing that will likely keep prices higher than pre-pandemic levels.
As a home buyer, you have to ask yourself if the current market conditions are sustainable or not. If they are, go ahead and buy now because we don’t see significant changes on the horizon where real estate should be concerned.
What it will it take for the market to crash?
Some economists believe the real estate market frenzy is temporary and will be short-lived. The short-term fever is attributed to the lack of inventory. We haven’t had any foreclosures or evictions since the pandemic’s start, Which leads many to believe that the foreclosure inventory along with regular pre-pandemic listings will dramatically increase inventory and crash the real estate market.
It’s simply something you must consider if you are currently looking to purchase a home in the Chicagoland area. Since the start of the pandemic, there have been 7.2 million borrowers that have participated in the forbearance program—allowing borrowers to put a pause on mortgage payments for the last 18 months. But since the start of the program, 72% of participants have become current, leaving just over 2 million homes in the program. Unfortunately, this will likely come to an end this August, and borrowers will need to find another solution to their dilemma.
Mortgage servicers, in general, want to keep as many borrowers in their homes as possible since the foreclosure process is costly. When a borrower defaults on their mortgage, the lender can offer help with modifications to lower interest rates or tack missed payments onto the end of the loan. If neither option is acceptable, homeowners will have the opportunity to sell their homes and may end up with a profit in today’s market.
Comparing today’s market conditions to that of the last real estate fall out, in 2007, 26% of the homeowners owed more on their home than it was worth. In comparison, today, over 90% of those homes in forbearance have at least 10% equity on their home. So, if you are expecting the carnage of 2008, it likely not going to happen.
Interest rates are another likely factor that might affect the real estate market. Traditionally real estate prices fall as interest rates rise- due to the increase in the monthly payment for borrowers. Although we will likely see higher rates in the next 12-18 months, it will not change the monthly mortgage. The home might cost less, but the cost to borrow will increase, canceling them selfs out.
Should I wait to buy Real Estate in Chicagoland Area?
Should I wait to buy real estate- Is the million-dollar question and probably the most challenging question to answer because no one knows what is really to come. Furthermore, every person’s situation and location are different, so you will have to answer this question independently. But if you need a recommendation, I will give you my opinion on who should wait and who should still consider buying in 2021.
If you are purchasing in or around the median price range for your desired area, you should continue to pursue your home purchase aggressively. The current market conditions have a lot to do with the lower inventory, reflecting the lack of affordable housing and higher building costs.
Waiting another year or two to purchase a home at the most optimal time may not come at all. Compared to other markets across the US, Chicagoland entry-level real estate is still very affordable and will likely continue to increase for the foreseeable future. Find the house that fits your needs, don’t worry too much about what is to come. Inventory has made a turn but is increasing much slower than the higher price ranges.
For those purchasing a home at or above $500k, you can play more of a waiting game. We have likely passed the lowest inventory as there has been an increase in inventory over the last three months. I would continue searching for the home that fits your need but with less urgency than lower price ranges.
The current market conditions have a lot to do with supply, but the most significant factor in price increases seems to be housing affordability. Although I agree home prices might have a slight correction, it will likely not be enough to make much of a difference in your monthly housing costs.
If you believe the market is going to crash, then, by all means, wait. But be prepared to wait for a year or two or longer. We have likely passed the lowest point for inventory, but that doesn’t mean the market will crash again, as we saw with the 2008-2009 housing crisis.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the most important thing to consider is your situation. Your location and price point will have a significant say in whether or not you should buy now or wait for market conditions to change. If you are purchasing in an area with low affordable inventory, I would recommend going ahead with your purchase because this could be the lowest we see for a while.
On the other hand, if you are purchasing in an area where there isn’t limited inventory and housing prices have increased, I would wait at least another year before making your decision as the market will likely cool down to more normally seen levels.
As always, evaluate your situation and market conditions with your real estate professional. Then, make your decision based on available data and make data-driven decisions.
We are real estate agents in the Chicagoland area and would love to help you find the right home. If you have any questions feel free to contact us.
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